Elliott Wave Analysis & Forecast - USDCAD - Weekly - 2nd September, 2022
It has been a long time since we did technical analysis of USD CAD. Today,
when I got some time, I thought I should analyze how its waves are being
formed.
If we look at the chart, we see a major resistance level at 1.3212. In
order to break this resistance level, the market needs to make a downward cycle
and come back with more bulls and break it with great force. This is the
psychology of the second wave.
If we look at the Elliott Wave count, Blue
Wave 3/ has completed on January
17, 2016 where it set its wave all-time high at 1.4690. Then we saw the next corrective wave blue 4/ started,
which moved in the form of a cyan blue ABC
and completed on May 30, 2021 where it made its low and completed the blue wave 4/.
If we look internally at the blue wave 4/ which is consisted of a simple flat correction
that was completed by traveling through the cyan
ABC. Cyan wave A is consisted of three sub-waves in form of red abc as
the first wave in a flat correction consists of 3 sub-waves which we term as abc.
Similarly, Cyan Wave B also consisted of three red sub-waves abc which
ended on January 15, 2020. And then we saw the final wave of the corrective
wave begin, which finished as cyan C
on May 20, 2021, where it also completed the upper wave blue 4/ and
made its long-term and medium-term lows.
If our biasedness about above Elliott wave count is correct then at the
moment prices are rising to complete the last Wave
Blue 5/ and its minimum target
will be 1.5 or so but it is a matter of time. This final Blue Wave 5/ will
also consist of five sub-waves which we will call Blue
12345.
According to my analysis, cyan wave 1 is completed on 10 July 2022 and cyan wave 2 is on its way to its destination.
Once this Cyan Wave 2 is complete, we'll see a powerful rally in wave Cyan 3 unfolding
soon.
Only break above 1.3207 will invalidate our short term scenario which means
Cyan wave 1 will take more time to complete but overall scenario will remain
same.
Trade Recommendations:
For short Term Trade, traders can enter into trade from its current price
by placing stop loss just above the previous high targeting 0.38% and 0.61% Fibonacci
which is 1.2762 and 1.2480.
Muhiuddin
0 Comments